The pressure's off: How teams are changing the way they play

Increased pressure on kickers, more metres on offer on kick returns and teams forcing dropouts at a record low rate. 

Those are the stat trends emerging from the opening six rounds of the 2024 NRL Telstra Premiership season as playmakers across the game adjust to new attacking rules while coaches develop enhanced defensive systems to combat them.

Earlier this year, the NRL confirmed a change to the laws and interpretations of the game to incentivise more contests for the ball from set restarts, with teams not penalised for a short dropout failing to reach 10 metres or going into touch.

“Teams will no longer risk conceding significant territory as well as a penalty for attempting to regain possession from restarts of play," NRL Executive General Manager – Elite Football Graham Annesley said at the time.

2024 law interpretations: Downtown chasers

That change was followed by another adjustment, with the "downtown" rule requiring all attacking players standing between the dummy half and kicker to remain behind the ruck until the ball is kicked.

The consequences of those two changes has been immediate, with teams ramping up their kick pressures in defence whilst also reaping the rewards of added kick return metres. The theory being that kickers under more pressure are less effective with their placement of kicks, resulting in more kick metres available.

The numbers behind the trends

Average kick pressures per game has risen by 30 percent, climbing from 26.1 in 2023 to 34.1 in 2024 – the highest per game average since the COVID-affected 2020 season (37.7 per game). 

Average kick return metres per game are also up from 201m to 207.9m – the highest per game average in that regard over the last six seasons.

Panthers fullback Dylan Edwards averaged the most kick return metres per game in 2023 with 72.7m, leading Sharks fullback Will Kennedy in second with 66.7m.

Average kick return metres per game

In 2024, Edwards' number is an incredible 121.2m – the highest of any player to have played more than one game – while Taine Tuaupiki (103.3m), Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad (93m), Kalyn Ponga (77.7m) and Kennedy (68.2m) are all averaging higher than the Sharks' fullback in 2023.

"Kick pressures are just such a valued part of the game to all teams at the moment," 2023 Dally M Halfback of the Year Shaun Johnson told pan66.com.

"The kicking of good teams dictates field position, and the way momentum plays out.

"We have felt it when we have played against sides that have put us under extreme pressure through kicking, so we have to put that kicking under pressure to try and get an inch somewhere. We do work all week to handle that attention. 

"I take the kick pressure as a bit of a credit [to me], as a bit of a 'hey you can kick the ball pretty well, we've got to pressure you to stifle it a little bit'.

Johnson continues his fine form

Is a forcing a repeat set still a good play?

No player had more try assists than Johnson in 2023, who ended the season with 29 assists from his 25 games across the year. In large part, those assists came as a result of the playmaker's ability to generate pressure through repeat sets, having created 24 and 23 repeat sets for his side across the last two years respectively.

In Round 1 this year, Johnson seemingly began where he left off in 2023, earning five repeat sets against the Sharks as the Warriors controlled proceedings and looked on course to kick off their 2024 campaign with a win. The only problem being Ronaldo Mulitalo, who Cronulla continually kicked to on their short dropouts to earn the ball back and deny the Warriors a chance to build momentum.

Despite having less possession, run metres and field position – as well as a worse completion rate – the Sharks would go on to win the game 16-12.

Warriors v Sharks – Round 1, 2024

Since that game, Johnson has interestingly only forced three dropouts in five games which, outside of an Xavier Coates miracle try on the final play of the game, the Warriors have gone undefeated through.

Average tries from kicks across the game are still high – the 2.2 tries per game are the highest over the last six seasons – but the tried-and-tested method of building pressure through repeat sets doesn't appear to be following as much.

Outside of Johnson, Daly Cherry-Evans and Jamal Fogarty, no player has forced more than four dropouts this year through the first six rounds. Fogarty, who earned 23 repeat sets in total last year, had four in a Golden Point win over the Titans in Round 5, and only three in the five games prior to that.

"The value has changed a little bit," Johnson said. "I'm not really going down there with a mindset of getting repeat sets and it's for a couple of reasons.

"One is because I believe we feel like we can score instead and the second is it's a lottery whether you get it back from a dropout.

"We are detailed around it and we like to back ourselves to score in those situations."

Shaun Johnson's Round 5 highlight reel

What does it all mean?

As is so often the case with the modern game, it comes back to pressure. How do teams generate pressure on their opponent with their attack and their defence and, conversely, how do they combat it to ensure they stay in control of a game? 

Perhaps we're starting to see the seeds of change when it comes to building pressure. The idea of it being formed through repeat sets remains true, but an increased likelihood of teams retaining the ball off a short dropout is starting to reduce the value of such a tactic over the course of a season.

The same is proving true also for kick pressures, as teams up their speed and intentionality to ensure that field position – another traditional way of building pressure on an opponent – isn't so easily gained or maintained. 

How playmakers and coaches alike aim to combat the changes we've seen so far this season will be fascinating to watch over the ensuing rounds.