Hold 'em or sell 'em: Origin players edition
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They’re some of the very best players in the game and in NRL Fantasy, but for the next month and a half they’re also set to be the least available.
Origin players and their ability to back up from representative duty for their clubs will have a big bearing on how many Fantasy teams go through this period and it can be tricky to know which rep players are worth keeping and which should be punted.
While it’s important you aren’t carrying too many Origin players from Round 13 onwards, you also don’t want to burn through a heap of trades getting rid of them and in the long-term end up with a weaker team.
Focusing on some of the most-owned Fantasy players who are likely to play for Queensland or New South Wales, here’s who I’d be inclined to get rid of after Round 12 and who I’d be looking to keep hold of.
Hold
Isaah Yeo, and indeed all of Penrith’s Origin players, look like being safe holds through the representative period thanks to a favourable bye schedule and four-day turnarounds between each Origin match and their proceeding club game.
Does it mean they’ll all back up after each Origin? No, and Ivan Cleary has a history of being cautious and risking a loss mid-season to have everyone fit for later on, but it does give them the best possible chance to back up.
As far as the byes go, Penrith have already had one and their remaining two fall in Round 16 and 19 when Origin players wouldn’t be available anyway.
Isaah Yeo Try
There's another high-performing MID that is worth keeping in Reuben Cotter too, with the Cowboys having Round 16 and 19 byes and four-day gaps ahead of their games in Round 17 and Round 20, which gives Cotter and co an extended recovery time.
Being located in Townsville means there'll be a fair bit of travel for their Origin stars regardless, but it doesn't hurt that North Queensland play at home directly after two of the three interstate clashes either.
It's worth noting though that Cotter and the Cowboys have their third and final bye in Round 25 when finals will have begun for head-to-head leagues, which is a big negative.
It's a huge bonus for Harry Grant that the Storm play at home at AAMI Park in the round which follows Origin II, which will be held at the Melbourne Cricket Ground.
Travel won't be an issue that week and injury permitting the $707k HOK will be a good chance of backing up there. He faces three-day turnarounds between Origin matches and club games the other two weeks, but given he's taken on the captaincy this year he'll be even more desperate to try and back up every time.
The lack of reliable talent at HOK this year means I wouldn't be wasting trades on getting Grant out unless you absolutely have to.
Likely Maroons debutant J'maine Hopgood meanwhile gets the huge bonus of a five-day turnaround between Origin I and the Eels' Round 14 game, which falls on a Monday against the Bulldogs.
He should play in that given it's no different than the shortest turnaround players face at NRL level anyway, and then is a good chance of backing up after Origin II as well because he's likely to be used off the bench and play fewer minutes for Queensland.
Hopgood on the charge down
Owners of Angus Crichton have some tough medicine to swallow with the outstanding EDG set to miss consecutive games in Round 13 (Origin duty) and Round 14 (bye). But unlike his teammate James Tedesco, who is discussed below, he's a hold because it's a small price to pay for a top five Fantasy scorer.
Sell
Nicho Hynes is comfortably the best player in Fantasy right now and someone you’re going to want in your best 17 for the run home. But if you have enough trades up your sleeve then getting rid of him for the Origin period looks a wise decision.
We already know the Cronulla maestro has been, or still is, battling a dodgy calf muscle that tightened up and caused him to miss a game just two weeks ago, so there has to be some big question marks over his ability to back up after Origin games.
Not to mention that his team are flying and on track to cruise into the top eight right now, so the appetite to risk him for the sake of two points will probably be lower than it is for other teams who are battling to be in the mix.
The Sharks’ schedule also isn’t conducive to backing up. In addition to probably missing Round 13, 16 and 19, Hynes would have to jump on a plane after Origin I in Sydney and head to Brisbane for a game against the Broncos three days later, while after Game Two in Melbourne it would be difficult to back up on a Friday night against the Bulldogs in Sydney.
Bye round target: Reed Mahoney
While you can hold out hope that some clubs won't opt to rest Origin players at all through this period, that isn't the case with the Broncos due to their draw which has them playing in Auckland three days after Game Two in Melbourne.
It's extremely likely that Brisbane coach Kevin Walters won't want Payne Haas, Patrick Carrigan or Reece Walsh to be jumping on a three-and-a-half-hour flight to be part of that game, so we can assume with some confidence that the trio will miss at least four games during the Origin period if they are selected for all three games.
Haas and Walsh have both spent plenty of time off the field this year due to injury and have fewer kilometres on the clock, but Carrigan has appeared in all 11 games so far and played over an hour in every one of them so is primed for a rest week or two.
The Broncos also have their third and final bye in Round 24 which is a bit of a deterrent.
Bye round target: Greg Marzhew
Roosters skipper James Tedesco meanwhile is one to consider moving off.
As mentioned earlier, Origin players from the Roosters will miss Round 13 and Round 14 and given he has an excellent back-up fullback on the books in Joey Manu, coach Trent Robinson could well look to rest Teddy in Round 17 (when they play the struggling Wests Tigers) or Round 20 too.
There are other good WFB options available who will be more reliable for the next month and a half, and they might even rival Tedesco in scoring long term anyway.
