NRL Fantasy: When to pull the trigger on Hynes, Cleary, Ponga and more

With the end of the Origin period in sight and some huge names readying to exit the Casualty Ward in coming weeks, it's time to start preparing your keeper hit list for the run home. 

Expectations around performance after long injury layoffs, break evens and team schedules will all play a role in getting the timing just right with when to bring in these big guns.

The conversation begins with a player who is neither a current Origin player nor returning from injury, but who will be among the top trade-in targets in coming weeks. 

Nicho Hynes, the once $1m man in Fantasy who could be yours for below $850k in coming weeks, heads into this Round 17 with a round-high break even of 113. 

He's in that spot for a few reasons.

Injury is the leading one, with a calf problem restricting him to just 31 minutes and 17 points back in Round 12, before he went into the Origin arena, got dropped, and returned to club action with a (by his standards) modest 57.

There'll be temptation to move quickly on him after Round 17 given the elite HLF pool is a bit bare right now, but I favour playing a longer game with Hynes if you can and holding off on him until ahead of Round 19 or, if you're positioned to do so, even Round 21.

Unless he goes big this week, there's a good chance his price will drop significantly again after Round 18, while Cronulla's bye in Round 20 makes it tempting to hold fire until after that too. 

Back in Round 10 when Nathan Cleary broke down again with his recurring hamstring injury and was subsequently ruled out for two months, he became the most traded out player in the game, with close to 90,000 coaches moving off him so far in 2024. 

He's slated to return in Round 20 and despite facing a break even of 92, I don't think there'll be big savings achieved by holding off on Cleary and for me he's an immediate trade in.

He'll be coming back against a Dolphins side who have been a dream opponent for Fantasy HLFs of late – with No.7's averaging a whopping 67 per game against them between Round 11-16 – and will be primed for a big score.

Due back the same week is Kalyn Ponga, who before suffering his foot injury in Round 7 was in brilliant Fantasy form, having averaged 69.3 points across his three games prior. 

If he returns and racks up close to those numbers he'll drop only minimal dollar value, so he's another who is a priority either upon his return or the following week.

As for Tom Trbojevic, who could be back as early as next week, it's simply a case of waiting to see where he ends up playing, with he and the Sea Eagles pondering a positional switch to help preserve his body.

If he's at centre or wing then he might not be a target at all. If he slots back in at fullback then it's a different conversation and he's pretty cost effective at $636k. 

In terms of Origin stars who have been traded out during the rep period but are keepers for the run home, there's a bit to consider when it comes to remaining bye schedules. 

If you're playing in a head-to-head league/s then a move to bring in Reece Robson or Reuben Cotter almost needs to be done with the knowledge that you'll need to burn another trade on getting them out in the lead up to the Cowboys' bye in Round 25.

That will fall during a sudden-death final for most head-to-head leagues, when you really don't want talent like that sitting out.

If you're playing for overall points then it's not so much of an issue and they can be traded back in the week of Round 20, with North Queensland players a good chance of backing up from Origin III thanks to a four-day turnaround. 

Payne Haas is projected to face a break even in the low 70s in Round 18 which he might not meet, so you're set to get good value in bringing him straight back in after Origin III, while the same goes for Harry Grant whose price will probably be as low as it'll get on the run home ahead of Round 20.